The Ecclesia

Holocene Stability

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Holocene Stability

Source: EPICA community, Nature 429, 2004; Shaun Marcott et al., Science 339, 2013 Institution: Multiple

Finding

The Holocene (~11,700 years) is characterized by unusual climate stability. Ice cores show the preceding 800,000 years dominated by glacial-interglacial swings of 8-12C. The Holocene: less than ~1C variation over 10,000 years. All human civilization — agriculture, cities, writing, science — developed within this narrow window. CO2 is now at ~424 ppm, higher than at any point in at least 800,000 years. The rate of change is unprecedented in the geological record.

Pattern Mapping

Proportion — Civilization exists within a climate envelope that is not wide. A 1C change already produces measurable effects. The current trajectory exits the Holocene envelope. Civilization was proportioned to a climate it is now leaving.

Honesty — The ice core record shows climate stability is the exception, not the rule. Any assumption that current stability is permanent contradicts the physical record.

Humility — Civilization did not create Holocene stability. It was permitted by it. Stability was a precondition, not an achievement.

Connections

  • Planetary Boundaries — the boundaries define the operating envelope civilization was proportioned to (→ Meta-Pattern 03: Knowledge-Action Gap)
  • The Greenhouse Effect — the greenhouse mechanism whose magnitude is changing
  • Milankovitch Cycles — natural orbital forcing would not end the Holocene for tens of thousands of years
  • Cosmic Microwave Background — both are honest records: one cosmic, one planetary
  • Snowball Earth — both show that Earth’s climate has been far from current conditions before

Status

EPICA ice cores and Marcott et al. (2013) are established paleoclimatology. Current CO2 levels and their relation to the record are established atmospheric science. See Luthi et al., Nature 453, 2008. The characterization as Knowledge-Action Gap is this project’s structural interpretation.

The mapping to the five properties is this project’s structural interpretation.

Graph View

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